Rules & athlete rights
We examine entry and exit rules, who owns and licenses an athlete’s name, image and likeness (NIL), and how income reaches the athlete.
- Participation
- TST: applications and selection, plus a U.S. Soccer partnership. W7F London: invited professional clubs. Neither establishes unrestricted athlete eligibility.
- Movement & exit
- Contract release, outside competition and federation obligations require event- and athlete-specific evidence.
- NIL ownership & licensing
- Not verified across the sample. An OPEN designation requires athlete control, including clear limits on any event media licence.
- Athlete earnings
- TST reports prizes awarded to winning teams; individual 2026 allocations and receipts are not verified here. W7F London publishes a 50/50 club/player allocation for the top four teams’ prizes. That rule does not verify individual amounts received.
What makes a market OPEN or CLOSED?
OPEN · athlete autonomy
Athletes can enter through sporting ability without federation control over entry, exit or outside earning opportunities, while retaining control of their name, image and likeness (NIL). Event rules, safety standards and selection can still apply.
CLOSED · governing-body controls
Participation in a federation-governed system is conditional on compliance with that governing body’s bylaws and regulations. Registration and eligibility determine who can compete; transfer and contract rules govern movement, with financial and commercial conditions set by the system.
OPEN / CLOSED are NTG research classifications, not legal statuses. Selection alone does not make a system closed. Independence alone does not prove openness. An event media licence is not automatically a transfer of all NIL rights.
LIFECYCLE & GROWTH
Progress in its own time
Index each documented series to 100, then inspect years since its own launch. This separates growth from dollar size while keeping the organization’s maturity visible.
Index: first documented value = 100. Calendar age: years since the stated launch; launch year = 0. Observation years and lifecycle age are shown separately.
TST · Total published prizes · USD
Competition launched in 2023
- Baseline · 2023
- US$1M · Index 100
- Latest observed · 2026
- US$3M · Index 300
- Annualized change
- +44.2%
2023–2026 · 3 years
Total growth comes from added prize brackets: 1 → 3. The original men’s prize remains US$1M. TST is one series within the research sample, not the entire OPEN market.
Values, time conventions & methodology
Index = 100 × current value ÷ baseline. Annualized change = 100 × [(last ÷ first)^(1 ÷ elapsed years) − 1]. Calendar age = observation year − launch year; launch year is 0. At least two elapsed annual intervals are required here for annualized change.
Different metrics remain different: prizes, transfer fees, programs and teams. Indexing does not make them comparable valuations, investment returns or an age-adjusted ranking. Blank years are unobserved; no interpolation or forecasts are used.
For the same 2023–2025 window: TST prize growth is +41.4% annualized; FIFA-reported transfer fees +16.4%. These are different financial flows, not a performance ranking.
European Commission · normalization · SEC · market capitalization
Federation Market Capacity · research framework
Not rated · insufficient comparable peers
A future capacity score needs comparable peers, the same metric and scope, a declared age band and sufficient evidence. These four subjects do not form a valid peer cohort, so no score is published. Market capitalization would require an actual equity valuation; financial flows cannot substitute for it.